Positive EV betting: how ValueBet finds +EV bets
A positive EV (+EV) bet, or value bet, is a price higher than the true probability of the outcome. NinjaBet's ValueBet continuously compares every sportsbook's odds with the no-vig fair price of the reference market and shows the ones mispriced in your favor, expected value already computed. Betting only on these gives you a mathematical edge that shows over time, with variance along the way.
How it works in 3 steps
- 1
Filter by sportsbook and minimum value
Choose the sportsbooks where you hold an account, the sport and the minimum edge. The finder sorts the prices by expected value.
- 2
Stake in proportion to your bankroll
The guides explain staking: small, consistent stakes relative to your capital, so variance never takes you out of the game.
- 3
Log every bet and read the results over time
The Bet Tracker shows return, turnover and variance. ValueBet results are judged in months, not days.
Your earning potential
Long-term edge
A ValueBet is a price higher than the true odds. Betting only those gives you a mathematical edge over time — with variance along the way, so results are measured in months, not days.
Estimated Earnings
per month
Yearly projection
Every value bet members tracked since Aug 2024
- +9.7%
- Return
- 24,636
- Settled bets
- $99,678
- Net profit
What the subscription includes
237 active promotions 13 step-by-step guides
-
ValueBet Finder
Continuously compares every sportsbook's prices with the reference market and shows the ones priced in your favor, expected value already computed.
-
Filters by sportsbook and edge
Choose the sportsbooks where you hold an account, the sport and the minimum edge: the finder sorts the prices by expected value.
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ValueBet and staking guides
Bankroll management, handling variance and reading results over time, with the Bet Tracker measuring return and turnover.
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Community and support
The NinjaClub forum and the team's support for any question about prices, sportsbooks and tools.
ValueBet Premium plans
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- Basic ValueBet Guide
- Free ValueBet path + 24-hour trial
- Community Forum Access
MONTHLY VB PREMIUM
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$0.99/day
- Access to Every Guide
- Complete Version of the Tools
- Bet Tracker Pro included
SEMIANNUAL VB PREMIUM
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- Access to Every Guide
- Complete Version of the Tools
- Bet Tracker Pro included
ANNUAL VB PREMIUM
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- Access to Every Guide
- Complete Version of the Tools
- Bet Tracker Pro included
Free guides to get started
- Free
How ValueBet Works
Learn how ValueBet uses expected value to identify bets that can be profitable over the long term.
- Free
Straight ValueBet
Learn how to use the Straight ValueBet Tool to find single positive EV bets, check the odds, and place them correctly.
- Free
ValueBet Parlays
Learn how to use the Parlay ValueBet Tool to build ValueBet parlays, check the combined EV, and place them correctly.
- Free
MarketOdds
Learn how to use MarketOdds to check the estimated Fair Odds of a selection and compare them with sportsbook odds.
- Free
ValueBet Calculator
Learn how to use the ValueBet Calculator to check whether a bet has positive expected value.
- Free
Odds Changed Before Placing the Bet
Learn what to do when sportsbook odds change before you place a ValueBet.
7 more guides in this section are for Premium members.Open the section
Frequently asked questions
What is a ValueBet?
A bet where the sportsbook's price is higher than the true probability of the outcome. If a sportsbook prices at +120 an outcome worth +100, you hold a 10% mathematical edge.
Is the profit certain?
No. Unlike SureBets, ValueBets do not cover the outcomes: you win and lose, and the edge shows over the long run through the law of large numbers.
How much can you make with ValueBets?
We don't promise a figure: the result depends on how many bets you place, your stakes and variance, and it shows over months, not days. What we publish is the real record, members' tracked ValueBet results, losses included, on the ValueBet results page.
Where do the reference prices come from?
From the most liquid market, whose prices reflect true probability better than any sportsbook.
Do I need experience?
You need the basics of bankroll management and discipline. The ValueBet guides and the Bet Tracker support you; variance is the hardest part to handle.