Positive EV betting: how ValueBet finds +EV bets
A positive EV (+EV) bet, or value bet, is a price higher than the true probability of the outcome. NinjaBet's ValueBet continuously compares every sportsbook's odds with the no-vig fair price of the reference market and shows the ones mispriced in your favor, expected value already computed. Betting only on these, over time you earn a 3–10% return on turnover, with variance along the way.
How it works in 3 steps
- 1
Filter by sportsbook and minimum value
Choose the sportsbooks where you hold an account, the sport and the minimum edge. The finder sorts the prices by expected value.
- 2
Stake in proportion to your bankroll
The guides explain staking: small, consistent stakes relative to your capital, so variance never takes you out of the game.
- 3
Log every bet and read the results over time
The Bet Tracker shows return, turnover and variance. ValueBet results are judged in months, not days.
Your earning potential
Long-term edge
A ValueBet is a price higher than the true odds. Betting only those gives a 3–10% return on turnover over time — with variance along the way, so results are measured in months, not days. With a $1,000 bankroll that is typically $100–$500 a month.
Estimated Earnings
per month
Yearly projection
Every value bet members tracked since Aug 2024
- +9.7%
- Return
- 21,508
- Settled bets
- $94,764
- Net profit
What the subscription includes
111 active promotions 13 step-by-step guides
-
ValueBet Finder
Continuously compares every sportsbook's prices with the reference market and shows the ones priced in your favor, expected value already computed.
-
Filters by sportsbook and edge
Choose the sportsbooks where you hold an account, the sport and the minimum edge: the finder sorts the prices by expected value.
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ValueBet and staking guides
Bankroll management, handling variance and reading results over time, with the Bet Tracker measuring return and turnover.
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Community and support
The NinjaClub forum and the team's support for any question about prices, sportsbooks and tools.
ValueBet Premium plans
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- Basic ValueBet Guide
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- Bet Tracker Pro included
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Free guides to get started
- Free
How ValueBet Works
Learn how ValueBet uses expected value to identify bets that can be profitable over the long term.
- Free
Straight ValueBet
Learn how to use the Straight ValueBet Tool to find single positive EV bets, check the odds, and place them correctly.
- Free
ValueBet Parlays
Learn how to use the Parlay ValueBet Tool to build ValueBet parlays, check the combined EV, and place them correctly.
- Free
MarketOdds
Learn how to use MarketOdds to check the estimated Fair Odds of a selection and compare them with sportsbook odds.
- Free
ValueBet Calculator
Learn how to use the ValueBet Calculator to check whether a bet has positive expected value.
- Free
Odds Changed Before Placing the Bet
Learn what to do when sportsbook odds change before you place a ValueBet.
7 more guides in this section are for Premium members.Open the section
Frequently asked questions
What is a ValueBet?
A bet where the sportsbook's price is higher than the true probability of the outcome. If a sportsbook prices at +120 an outcome worth +100, you hold a 10% mathematical edge.
Is the profit certain?
No. Unlike SureBets, ValueBets do not cover the outcomes: you win and lose, and the edge shows over the long run through the law of large numbers.
How much can you make with ValueBets?
Over time a 3–10% return on turnover is realistic. With a $1,000 bankroll that is typically $100–$500 a month, with swings.
Where do the reference prices come from?
From the most liquid market, whose prices reflect true probability better than any sportsbook.
Do I need experience?
You need the basics of bankroll management and discipline. The ValueBet guides and the Bet Tracker support you; variance is the hardest part to handle.