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Value bet calculator: edge and stake of a +EV bet

The valuebet calculator compares the odds a sportsbook offers with the fair odds, the price that reflects the true probability of the outcome, and tells you whether the bet has value: it shows the edge in percent, the expected value in dollars and the profit if the bet wins or loses. It works with real-money bets, bonus bets and profit boosts.

How it works in 3 steps

  1. 1

    Enter the odds and the stake

    Type the sportsbook's American odds and the amount you want to bet. In Bonus bet or Boost mode the calculator applies that mode's rules.

  2. 2

    Enter the fair odds

    The fair odds are the market's reference price: the ValueBet finder computes them from the sharpest market, here you type them in.

  3. 3

    Read the edge and the expected value

    If the sportsbook's odds beat the fair odds the edge is positive and the expected value tells you what the bet is worth on average. With an account you save it to the Bet Tracker.

Frequently asked questions

What is a valuebet?

A bet where the sportsbook's price is higher than the true probability of the outcome. If a sportsbook prices at +120 an outcome worth +100, you hold a mathematical edge of about 10%.

How is the expected value calculated?

Expected value = stake × (sportsbook decimal odds ÷ fair decimal odds − 1). A positive value means that, repeating the bet many times, the average result is in your favor.

What are fair odds?

The odds that reflect the true probability of the outcome, without the sportsbook's margin. NinjaBet's ValueBet finder derives them from the reference market; in the calculator you enter them.

Is the profit certain?

No: unlike a hedge or a surebet, a valuebet does not cover the outcomes. You win and lose individual bets, and the edge shows over the long run across many bets.

How much should I stake on a valuebet?

A small, constant fraction of your bankroll. The calculator suggests a stake by the Kelly criterion once you have set your bankroll and Kelly fraction in your account preferences.

Do value bets work? What members tracked

+9.7%
Return
21,508
Settled bets
$94,764
Net profit
Cumulative profit, month by month
Aug 2024$94,764Oct 2026

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