Soccer · Italy - Serie B - Italy
Juve Stabia v Südtirol
Moneyline
Draw
value at ≥ +228
Edge+3.7%
Selected by NinjaBet among hundreds of value bets · odds +240
+EV Picks: math-backed picks, every result public
Tipsters sell you an opinion. We show you the price.
+EV picks are bets whose odds are higher than the fair price of the outcome: the consensus of the worldwide betting market. NinjaBet selects up to three a day with a fixed rule among the hundreds of value bets our ValueBet tool shows, and checks the odds were really available at a sportsbook. We publish the minimum odds that still carry value and settle every pick in public, losses included.
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New picks land on the channel first, results included.
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Why tipsters cost you money
A tip tells you who should win. It does not tell you whether the odds are worth taking, and that is the only thing that decides whether you make money over time.
| Typical tipster | +EV Picks | |
|---|---|---|
| What you get | An opinion: “they're in great form” | A price: the pick and the minimum odds that still carry value |
| The record | Most never publish the odds they took or a verifiable record | Every pick settled in public, losses included |
| Certainty | “Sure win”, “can't lose” | Variance stated up front: value picks lose often, the edge shows over hundreds of bets |
| Cost | A paid VIP group | Free, with the maths explained |
A pick without a price has no edge. And if a tipster really had one, why sell it for $20 a month?
Every pick, every result
Settled picks, newest first. Nothing is ever removed.
1 picks
The record so far
Flat stakes of 1 unit at the pick's odds, so every pick counts the same.
- Settled picks
- 1
- Won · Lost · Void
- 0 · 1 · 0
- Flat-stake ROI
- -100.0%
- Average CLV
- +2.4%
- Beat the closing price
- 100.0%
- Win rate
- 0.0%
- 30.5% expected from the fair price
Month by month
| Month | Settled picks | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 1 | -100.0% | +2.4% |
Published live
Picks published before kick-off since the page launched.
Settled picks: 1 Flat-stake ROI: -100.0% Average CLV: +2.4%
The long-run record of the ValueBet tool is on the ValueBet results page. See the ValueBet results
How +EV Picks work
- 1
The fair price
For every match we read the consensus of the worldwide betting market and turn it into a fair price for each outcome. Odds above that price carry value.
- 2
Only verified odds
Every pick starts from a value bet ValueBet showed before kick-off, and we check those odds were really available at a sportsbook. Edited odds and profit boosts never count.
- 3
A mechanical selection
Up to 3 picks a day, one per match: the highest edge among the verified value bets at least 60 minutes before kick-off. A fixed rule picks them, not a person.
- 4
Variance is part of it
A value pick still loses often: odds of +120 win less than half the time. The edge shows over hundreds of picks, which is why the record counts every single one.
Frequently asked questions
What is a +EV pick?
A bet whose odds are higher than the fair price of the outcome, the consensus of the worldwide betting market. Taken over and over, odds above the fair price return more than they cost; a single pick can still lose.
Why don't you name the sportsbook?
A free pick is about the price, not the shop. Take it wherever the odds are at least the “value at” figure; below that, skip it. ValueBet Premium shows every sportsbook and every price in real time.
Where do the picks come from?
From NinjaBet's ValueBet tool, which shows hundreds of value bets every day. A fixed rule picks up to three, and we check the odds were really available at a sportsbook before kick-off.
Will the picks win?
Many will lose. Value is about the price, not certainty: the edge shows over hundreds of bets. That is why every result is public, including the losses.
What is CLV?
Closing line value: how the odds you took compare with the fair price just before the start. Beating the closing price consistently is the clearest sign that a pick had value, whatever its result.
How do I get the picks first?
Join the Telegram channel: picks are posted there first, with the result as a reply. For every value bet, not just three a day, try ValueBet Premium free for 24 hours.
See every value bet, not just three a day
ValueBet Premium shows every value bet our scanner finds, with the sportsbook and the stake. Create a free account, follow the free path and start the 24-hour trial.
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