Do value bets work? What our members tracked since 2024
Every figure on this page comes from the bets NinjaBet members logged in their own Bet Tracker and settled: no projection, no simulation. It is the honest picture of value betting over years, swings included.
Tracked since Aug 2024 Updated Oct 6, 2026
Self-reported bets: members choose what they log.
- Return
- +9.6%
- Net profit
- $93,249
- Settled bets
- 21,259
- Total staked
- $976,759
Cumulative profit, month by month
The dashed line is the profit that would have built up by staking the same amounts at the period's average return (+9.6%): the actual profit swings around it and meets it at the end.
Results by year
| Year | Bets | Staked | Profit | Return | Profitable months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7,587 | $177,818 | $32,195 | +18.1% | 9/10 |
| 2025 | 8,189 | $505,571 | $43,031 | +8.5% | 11/12 |
| 2024 | 5,483 | $293,370 | $18,024 | +6.1% | 5/5 |
The last 12 months
| Month | Bets | Staked | Profit | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 439 | $8,687 | $2,450 | $93,249 |
| Sep 2026 | 2,663 | $48,768 | $8,046 | $90,799 |
| Aug 2026 | 373 | $11,649 | $1,886 | $82,753 |
| Jul 2026 | 452 | $14,497 | $4,076 | $80,866 |
| Jun 2026 | 803 | $22,862 | $5,099 | $76,790 |
| May 2026 | 656 | $21,836 | $2,044 | $71,691 |
| Apr 2026 | 601 | $20,671 | $2,418 | $69,647 |
| Mar 2026 | 488 | $10,512 | $5,026 | $67,229 |
| Feb 2026 | 464 | $9,948 | $1,377 | $62,203 |
| Jan 2026 | 648 | $8,388 | -$229 | $60,826 |
| Dec 2025 | 270 | $5,035 | $806 | $61,054 |
| Nov 2025 | 329 | $9,165 | $2,911 | $60,249 |
How the fair odds and the value are computed
The fair odds are the consensus price of the worldwide betting market: the market's collective sentiment on an outcome, with no sportsbook margin in it.
- 1
Read the market consensus
For every outcome the tool reads the consensus price of the worldwide betting market, the price at which the market as a whole is prepared to trade. That is the fair odds.
- 2
Compare every sportsbook's price
Each sportsbook's odds for the same outcome are compared with the fair odds. A price above the fair odds is a value bet: the sportsbook is paying more than the outcome is worth.
- 3
Compute the edge
The edge is the sportsbook's odds divided by the fair odds, minus one, after any commission. It is shown as the expected value in percent: +5% means five cents of expected profit per dollar staked, over many bets.
A worked example
A sportsbook offers 1.50 on an outcome whose fair odds are 1.45: the edge is +3.4%. Over many such bets, that is the expected return on each unit staked.
How to read these numbers
-
Variance is the normal state
A value bet wins less than half the time at typical odds. Losing weeks and losing months are expected; the edge shows up over hundreds of bets, not over a weekend.
Already a member? Compare your own value bets with their expected value in the ValueBet Analysis. Open the ValueBet Analysis
ValueBet Premium plans
Pick a duration: cancel anytime
FREE VB STARTER
Forever
- Basic ValueBet Guide
- Limited Finder Access
- Community Forum Access
MONTHLY VB PREMIUM
/ Month
$0.99/day
- Access to Every Guide
- Complete Version of the Tools
- Bet Tracker Pro included
SEMIANNUAL VB PREMIUM
/ 6 Months
$0.82/day
save $30
- Access to Every Guide
- Complete Version of the Tools
- Bet Tracker Pro included
ANNUAL VB PREMIUM
/ Year
$0.66/day
save $120
- Access to Every Guide
- Complete Version of the Tools
- Bet Tracker Pro included
Frequently asked questions
Do value bets really work?
Over the long run, yes, for members who stayed disciplined: tens of thousands of settled bets tracked since 2024 show a positive return on turnover every year, with losing months along the way. The figures on this page are those members' own results, not a promise.
Where do the fair odds come from?
From the consensus price of the worldwide betting market: the market's collective sentiment on each outcome, with no sportsbook margin in it. A sportsbook price above that consensus is a value bet.
How much can you expect to make?
Members' tracked return on turnover sits in the single digits per unit staked, so the money depends on your bankroll and how many bets you place. Expect swings: the edge shows over hundreds of bets, not over a week.
Can I see my own results like this?
Yes. Log your bets in the Bet Tracker and the ValueBet Analysis page (Tracker Pro) shows your return, your win rate against the fair odds and your actual versus expected profit over time.